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Hong Kong Tourism Recovery Challenges and Trends

  • Writer: Mag Shum
    Mag Shum
  • Mar 1
  • 5 min read

Key Points

  • Research suggests Hong Kong’s economy will grow moderately in 2025, with GDP forecasts around 2-3%, influenced by global trade tensions and China’s economic boosts.

  • Tourism is recovering, with 34 million visitors in 2023 and projections for 46 million in 2024, but spending per visitor is lower, averaging HK$5,232 in 2023, down from pre-pandemic levels.

  • An unexpected detail: the aging population, with one in three expected to be over 65 by 2066, poses challenges like labor shortages, potentially slowing economic growth.

  • The government is focusing on tech, AI, and the Greater Bay Area to drive economic and tourism growth, aiming to attract talent and diversify markets.


Hong Kong's Economic Outlook

Hong Kong’s economy seems likely to see moderate growth in 2025, with GDP forecasts suggesting a range of 2-3%. This growth is shaped by external factors like U.S. trade policies under President Trump, which may disrupt exports, and internal boosts from China’s economic measures. The evidence leans toward a cautious outlook, with inflation expected at 1.5-1.8% and challenges from an aging population shrinking the workforce.


Tourism Trends

Tourism is on an upward trend, with 34 million visitors in 2023, up from 600,000 in 2022, and projections for 46 million in 2024. However, spending per visitor averaged HK$5,232 in 2023, lower than the HK$8,000 in 2014, reflecting a shift toward day-trippers from Mainland China. The government is investing HK$1.23 billion in 2025-26 to enhance tourism, focusing on high-value visitors and events.


Challenges and Opportunities

The aging population, with projections showing one in three people over 65 by 2066, could strain labor markets and healthcare. To counter this, the government is promoting tech innovation, like the HK$1 billion Hong Kong AI Research and Development Institute, and leveraging the Greater Bay Area for economic integration. These efforts aim to attract talent and boost tourism through regional collaboration.


Economic Context and Forecasts

The Hong Kong economy is expected to register further growth in 2025, with real GDP growth forecasts ranging from 2-3%, as per recent analyses Hong Kong Economy - Hong Kong Economic Situation - Latest Developments. This forecast aligns with a cautious outlook, considering external pressures such as U.S. trade protectionism under Trump 2.0, which may disrupt global trade flows and affect Hong Kong’s goods exports. The Hong Kong dollar’s strength, tied to a slower pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, could also impact local housing markets. However, China’s proactive economic policies are expected to bolster market confidence, benefiting various economic segments.


Historical data shows Hong Kong’s GDP growth varied, with 3.2% year-on-year in 2024, predominantly driven by local private consumption and inbound visitors Hong Kong economic indicators - KPMG China. For 2025-2029, projections suggest an average annual GDP growth of 2.3-2.9%, converging to 2.5% by decade’s end, per IMF and local estimates Hong Kong Economy, Politics and GDP Growth Summary - The Economist Intelligence Unit. This slowdown reflects structural headwinds, notably an aging population and slower capital accumulation.


Tourism Recovery and Spending Patterns

Tourism is rebounding, with 34 million visitor arrivals in 2023, a significant increase from 600,000 in 2022, yet 39% below 2018’s 65.15 million Hong Kong: visitor arrivals 2024 | Statista. By late 2024, October saw 4,090,054 arrivals, suggesting an annualized figure approaching 48-49 million, per Hong Kong Visitor Arrivals. The first half of 2024 recorded 21 million visitors, indicating strong recovery momentum.


Spending patterns, however, show a decline. Total tourist expenditure in 2023 was HK$177.9 billion, up 190% from 2022 but 30% shy of 2019’s HK$256 billion Hong Kong Tourism Statistics - How Many People Visits?(2023). Per capita spending averaged HK$5,232 for all visitors in 2023, calculated from total spending divided by visitor numbers, contrasting with the user’s mention of HK$6,393, which likely refers to overnight visitors at HK$6,939 Tourist spending in Hong Kong expected to drop 16% this year despite possible 35% uptick in arrivals – tourism bureau. This discrepancy highlights the distinction between total and overnight visitor spending, with day-trippers from Mainland China, accounting for over 26.76 million visits in 2023, contributing to lower averages.


The average length of stay dropped to 3.2 nights in H1 2024 from 4.9 in Q1 2023, per Hong Kong welcomes 21 million tourists in first half of 2024, 64% jump from last year | South China Morning Post, reflecting a shift toward shorter visits. The government’s 2025-26 Budget allocates HK$1.23 billion to the Hong Kong Tourism Board, up from HK$1.09 billion, targeting high-value visitors from the Middle East and Southeast Asia, with initiatives like Muslim-friendly certifications and over 80 mega events in H1 2025 The 2025-26 Budget - Upgrading Industries.


Demographic Challenges: Aging Population

Hong Kong faces significant demographic challenges from an aging population, with projections indicating one in three people over 65 by 2066 Hong Kong’s Ageing Population - an Overview - Issuu. The Census and Statistics Department projects the proportion aged 65 and over to rise from 11.7% in 2003 to 27% by 2033, with median age increasing from 38 to 49 The Chinese University of Hong Kong. This trend, driven by low fertility rates and increased life expectancy, poses risks to labor markets, with retirees potentially outnumbering new workers, fueling economic slowdowns and healthcare demands Impact of Hong Kong’s aging population on retirement protection - WTW.


Government Initiatives and Strategic Focus

The 2025-26 Budget emphasizes innovation and technology, with HK$1 billion allocated for the Hong Kong AI Research and Development Institute to spearhead AI R&D and industrial applications Hong Kong’s 2025-26 Budget Advances Innovation and Technology - Thailand Business News. This aligns with efforts to position Hong Kong as an international AI hub, leveraging the “one country, two systems” principle. The budget also supports fintech and green finance, part of the broader Innovation and Technology Development Blueprint The 2024-25 Budget - Budget Speech.


The Greater Bay Area (GBA) megaproject, comprising Hong Kong, Macao, and nine Guangdong cities, aims for integrated economic development, with a total population over 86 million and GDP exceeding RMB 14 trillion in 2023 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - Overview. Infrastructure like the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge enhances connectivity, potentially boosting trade and tourism Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area - Wikipedia.


Fact-Checked Numbers and Discrepancies


To address economic and tourism challenges:

  1. Economic Growth:

    • Enhance productivity through AI and tech, aligning with the HK$1 billion AI institute.

    • Attract talent via immigration policies, countering labor shortages from aging.

    • Invest in healthcare to manage aging population demands, ensuring economic stability.

  2. Tourism Boost:

    • Diversify markets beyond Mainland China, targeting Middle East and Southeast Asia with HK$1.23 billion tourism budget.

    • Promote longer stays with incentives, addressing the 3.2-night average in 2024.

    • Leverage GBA for multi-destination packages, enhancing regional tourism appeal.


These strategies aim to mitigate demographic pressures and capitalize on global opportunities, ensuring Hong Kong’s continued economic and tourism vitality.

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